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Race-by-race guide and tips for Rosehill on Saturday

Race 2 – 12:20PM NSW TRAINERS ASSOCIATION HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. True Detective was outstanding in defeat behind Spend first up at Rosehill. He was one of three runners to break 35 seconds home across the entire meeting, one of which was of course his conqueror. The son of Shamus Award travelled so sweetly in the run. True Detective faces older horses here but gets a weight drop because of it, carrying 54.5kg. He loses Hugh Bowman but Tommy Berry won on the horse on debut so knows him well. Berry shouldn’t have too much of a problem tucking in behind the speed which will give him his chance. Chris Waller has no doubt that the three-year-old is a spring carnival player and on his fresh run that certainly looks to be the case. He’ll want to be beating these to lock those bigger plans away. It looks a strong bunch of three-year-olds this season. Even money is about right.

Dangers: 2. Condemned resumes a gelding and although he profiles like he’ll relish 1400m and beyond, he still has the talent to give this a shake. The son of Dawn Approach has looked strong in his trials and probably should be lining up undefeated after he missed the kick at his second start before striking trouble late. 3. Misteed chased home Haut Brion Her last start, appreciating getting back over 1200m. The spring trips look to be her go. 6. Miss Scorcher was brave under 63kg at Grafton first up, even if it was a Class 2. She wasn’t that far away from the likes of Fiesta and Sylvia’s Mother in her preparation prior. 4. Adana’s best run of his campaign was first up last preparation when taking ground off Vegadaze, with Ljungberg in third. That was over 1400m, however.

How to play it: True Detective WIN.

Race 3 – 12:55PM NSW RACEHORSE OWNERS ASSOCIATION TROPHY (1600 METRES)

Alright 8. Our Winnie, it’s time to repay the faith. It’s been a wild (and rather fruitless) ride so far this preparation but here’s the perfect race and you’ve got just 49kg on your back after the claim of Brock Ryan. The six-year-old should have grabbed third last start. In keeping with the trend of her campaign, Punters Intelligence reveals she again clocked the fastest last 200m split (12.25s). Marginally quicker than the second-placed Cyber Intervention. Last start she copped a bump early on which put her out the back. Desperate for her to take up a closer spot, which will be the case regardless in a field of just seven, but would love to see her settle with a few behind her. Second up this campaign she was motoring late to be beaten three lengths by 1. Gresham having given away an impossible start. That alone tells you she is in this up to her ears.

Dangers: 7. La Chica Bella’s career looks back on track after a much better showing at Randwick over 1400m last start. Right down in the weights and being four runs into her campaign, expect Rachel King to play catch me if you can from in front. The blinkers come off for the first time though. When 6. Valentino Rossa last had this set up (four weeks in between runs with a tickover trial) he ran fifth to Star Of The Seas, beaten a length by Gresham, but meets him 4.5kg better off. Beware of 4. Pelethronius on wet tracks. The seven-year-old was 700-odd days between wins and then went and won two in 10 days. He is creeping up on grade. This is the easiest grade of race 3. Salsonic has contested in nine months but he needs everything to go his way, hence winning just two from his 32 starts.

How to play it: Our Winnie WIN.

Race 4 – 1:30PM RACING NSW TRAINERS HIGHWAY (1200 METRES)

1. I Am Captain has had seven starts in Highways but is yet to crack one. He has placed in six of them though. First up he looked set to get his dues but his fitness gave out late and he was pipped on the line by 5. Gumshoe (suited back to 1200m in this and looks a key danger again). Bathurst-based trainer Dean Mirfin opted to run the seven-year-old in BM70 grade second up at Warwick Farm and he ran fourth beaten only 2.5L by Rare Episode, Lifetime Quest and Dame Kiri. That was despite having to make a loopingm sustained run. The gelding doesn’t have to improve much on what he has been doing this preparation to finally knock one of these off. There is good speed in the capacity field but the draw gives Sam Clenton options. The horse to beat.

Dangers: 3. Irish Songs was explosive a fortnight ago in a Highway. He gave his rivals a start, plenty of weight and a beating with Punters Intelligence revealing a last 600m of 33.96s which was the third quickest closing split across the entire meeting. The difference here is he has to stretch that sprint out to 1200m and on a heavy track. The draw ensures he’ll be last again too. Has the talent to overcome the obstacles but it’s a low percentage play backing him. 19. Caccini found himself in the no-go zone at Randwick last start but still closed off hard. She’s flying this time in. The 1200m some query. 7. Acquittal will need to turn the tables on 14. Velvet Aeroplane from Moruya but he was exposed a long way from home first up with the weight and now finds James McDonald (and a set of blinkers). 8. Zardoro was luckless last start but that was seven weeks ago now. 4. Anchois is very fast and trialled super but will need to absorb a lot of pressure to win.

How to play it: I Am Captain EACH WAY.

Race 5 – 2:05PM JOCKEY CELEBRATION DAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Roheryn has a bit on these. The now gelded four-year-old has won two of his three starts and his loss commanded plenty of attention too. He was $1.50 but Chess Star was simply too fast. Punters Intelligence reveals Roheryn ran his last 600m in 32.35s so he was brilliant in defeat. Prior to that he belted his four rivals over the Rosehill 1200m, running a last 600m some 5.5 lengths faster than the next best. His debut on a Heavy 10 says he’ll get through the ground, albeit not his preferred going. James McDonald said class got him home that day. It was hard to get much of a guide off his one quiet trial but he was flanked by Avilius and Hartnell at the finish and held his own. It was a hot trial. Kerrin McEvoy is the man tasked with the job of getting Roheryn off the fence (presumably) from back in the field from barrier 1. Not ideal for a very short-priced favourite but couldn’t make a case for anything to beat him.

Dangers: When 1. Improvement first up for 82 weeks is one of the main threats it proves the point that it is Roheryn’s race to lose. However, this is a handy mare having won five of her 13 starts and the last time we saw her she ran fourth in a Group 3 at Flemington. Has to give weight to the field. The six-year-old looked sharp in her one trial, which she won from the front. 6. Best Guess was fresh up off a decent spell himself last time out and did a good job to finish just two lengths off River Bird. He was still in front 150m out but felt the pinch late. Can only come on from that. 5. Noble Joey is up and running and although beaten on his merits his last couple his recent Deprive form looks a strong reference for this, even though he was comfortably held. 2. Split Lip drops back in grade for new trainer Clare Cunningham.

How to play it: Roheryn WIN.

Race 6 – 2:45PM DIXIE BLOSSOMS SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

No shortage of speed here! 1. Attention Run ran her Australian debut in patches but won well in the end. The German import loomed large turning for home but as soon as she got level, Monsieur Sisu and Sweet Victory dropped her. She picked herself up again to prove too strong over the final 200 metres. We know she’ll get through the Randwick wet track off that performance and Sam Clenton should get plenty of benefit having had the spin on the five-year-old. The 2kg claimer will be mindful of coaxing her through another possible flat spot. She lumps 60.5kg but there’s only upside with her and she does look a mare capable of competing in lower tier Group races over the carnival. She is already Listed placed from her early days in Europe. Attention Run should tuck in behind a very genuine tempo and if it turns into a last man standing, she’ll be suited.

Dangers: 8. Missybeel has been poking around in the midweeks but she is close to another win. She is up in grade here but gets plenty of weight relief on what she has been lumping all preparation. Out to 1800m suits now fourth up and the way this race shapes up, will be afforded the chance to have a final crack at the leaders. In the past she was often the one that was hunted down from front. How forgiving can we be of 3. Toryjoy and 9. Waking Moment? The former missed the kick last start and was never in the hunt while the latter found the perfect race third up but failed to deliver. 10. Light Exceed has won two on the bounce but this is by far her stiffest test and she won’t get control.

How to play it: Attention Run WIN.

Race 7 – 3:25PM JOCKEYS REUNION HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Haunted should have won the Ramornie last start. The gelding made a mess of the start which saw him settle down last on the fence, spotting the leaders a huge start. He copped interference all the way down the straight and went to the line still with another gear up his sleeve to finish 1.4L off the winner in a blanket finish. James Cummings has found the perfect race for the son of Lonhro to make amends. Go back to the first two runs of this horse’s preparation to get a line on how talented he is – he gapped Dollar For Dollar (subsequently third in the G1 Doomben 10,000) at Caulfield and then ran third behind Despatch (subsequently won the G1 Goodwood) when a firm favourite. Forgive his off day at Flemington when too bad to be true. Handles the wet and Kerrin McEvoy rides. Looks too good for these.

Dangers: 3. Boss Lane is back to Randwick where seven of his nine wins have been. He loves the joint. He is on the back up from last week when fifth in a very slowly run 1100m event. It was dominated by up front with Punters Intelligence revealing his 32.81s last 600m was still only enough to run fifth. Three back on Heavy 8 at Randwick over 1200m he split Sesar and Jungle Edge. That’s certainly good enough for this. 4. Fortensky is trending the right way but he is winless in his last 16 starts, despite always being thereabouts. 9. Gala Moshea is a long way out of her grade here (she should have 45kg!) but her first up run was a cracker scooting home for third behind Agent Pippa after spending a year on the sidelines. Loves the wet. 5. Milk Man was a touch keen from in front in his latest Warwick Farm trial. Want to have a look at him first up over 1300m. Ran third to Avilius in France at his third ever start over 1900m. 1. Firsthand is mixing his form but his best is good enough.

How to play it: Haunted WIN.

Race 8 – 4:05PM INDUSTRY RECOGNITION RACE DAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

There is a sense of timing about 6. Costello third up. Both of his runs this time back have been full of merit and now he strikes the perfect race to score win number four in his career. The four-year-old only had the one trial before a four week gap into his first up run at Randwick where he loomed menacingly at one point but peaked on his run. Then second up he was shuffled back in the middle stages which might have proved the difference in winning and losing with Dr Drill dictating the race from outside of the leader. Punters Intelligence reveals his last 600m (34.55s) was the quickest in the race just ahead of 12. Matowi but it’s hard to forecast any improvement from the latter given how deep he is into his campaign. Costello wasn’t disgraced in the G1 Rosehill Guineas or G1 ATC Derby over the autumn. The promising stayer should be at his top now and expect Nash Rawillier to use the draw to have him a lot closer than last start. At a stretch, could even see him box seating.

Dangers: Could copy and paste the line about having a sense of timing for 7. Cyber Intervention too. They both tackle this third up off seconds, carry 58kg and have won three from 11 starts. What leans me the way of Costello, however, is the start Cyber Intervention will be forced to give away from the draw. Can he make up, say, four lengths on that horse in the straight? It’s a big ask. The five-year-old won impressively third up last campaign albeit at the midweeks in a race where the leaders went hard. 2. Primitivo has drawn off the track again which cruels his winning hopes but expect him to bounce back at Randwick and over 1800m. 3. Monsieur Sisu and 4. Our Gravano are place hopes.

How to play it: Costello WIN.

Race 9 – 4:45PM ATC THANK YOU OWNERS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

11. The Party Girl hasn’t run poorly in her 19-start career and under the care of David Pfieffer that trend has continued. The five-year-old mare has started five times since being transferred to her Warwick Farm base for a win, two seconds and two fourths. She finds her sixth different jockey of the preparation but gets the services Kerrin McEvoy. Last start she was held up momentarily and although she’d still have run second to Bangkok, the margin would have been tighter at the finish. She is relishing the 1400m trip too (3:1-2-0). She stays down on the limit with 54kg, handles the wet no problem and should be able to use the gate to settle midfield. This is a tricky closer to the Randwick meeting but she only has to hold her form to be fighting out the finish in a very winnable race. Right race at the right time.

Dangers: 1. Drachenfels, 2. Thy Kingdom Come and 5. Jack’s Bar all clashed at Rosehill last start. There wasn’t much between the three of them at the finish (just 0.6L) so given Thy Kingdom Come was first up and over an unsuitable 1200m journey, he’s the one you want to be following from the trio. He’d still be a run or two off full fitness, but he’ll improve sharply second up and can settle much closer. Hasn’t fired a shot at Randwick in the past though (5:0-0-0). Drachenfels is back out to 1400m, and gets the blinkers back on, but will he get the tempo to be winning from last? His Randwick record is much better (3:1-0-1). The knock on Jack’s Bar is he didn’t go a yard on a heavy Randwick track two starts ago. 10. Judge Judi was less than a length away from The Party Girl last start but had her chance. Saw enough from 4. Danawi at the end of 1200m to offer a glimmer of hope for him out to 1400m.

How to play it: The Party Girl EACH WAY

Tips supplied by Racing NSW.

Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.

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