The key word there is gradual.
Looking outside your window today, things will look quite similar to recent days: cloudy, a medium to high chance of showers and chilly winds of up to 45 km/h around midday.
After the temperature gauge maxed out at a mere 12.5 degrees 3.30pm yesterday at Melbourne Park, today the top temperature should inch up another half a degree towards 13. The coldest start to May on record was 12.2 degrees in 1962.
Sunday and Monday are much the same, with lows of 10 and tops of 14 and 15 respectively.
But we will see less rain from here on, said Mr Halfpenny – after some parts of the state experienced huge rain and snowfall overnight.
Parts of Gippsland in particular copped a proper soaking over the past 24 hours: 66mm fell in Thorpdale, 59mm in Moe South, and Upper Lang Lang had 59mm in the gauge from 9am yesterday. Mt Buller recorded 43 cm of fresh snow.
Mr Halfpenny said there is still a severe weather warning in place today for East, West and South Gippsland and parts of the Central and North East district for damaging south to south westerly winds.
South Gippsland is likely to feel very strong gusts of up to 120 km/h along the coast before 9am today, while across the rest of the state the average wind speed will be around 60 to 70 km/h.
There are still some flood warnings in place for Victoria, including for the Ovens and Kings Rivers, Broken River, the Dandenong Creek, the Kiewa River, the Mitchell River, the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume, the Seven and Castle Creeks.
While we will likely still see showers here and there in Melbourne today and the coming days, Mr Halfpenny said the drenchings we’ve seen in the past week are well and truly behind us – for this week at least.
“Today we’re still expecting showers in southern and mountain areas,” he said. “But showers even in the south are expected to ease off during the day.”
By Tuesday and Wednesday we see the sun again. Tuesday will reach 18 and Wednesday 19, and Mr Halfpenny says they will be “dry, mostly sunny days”.
“It’s not going to be hot at all, but it will be mild”.
Although some rain may appear again later in the week, the temperature will rise back up to 21 on Thursday – a world away from this bitter chill of this past week.
The city has had its wettest start to the year in almost a century, with nearly 410 millimetres of rain falling since New Year’s Day, while temperatures have gone close to breaking quarter-century old records.
“It’s been exceptionally cold for this time of year,” Mr Halfpenny said.
“We definitely are leaving the coldest weather behind us and having a relatively milder week after tomorrow,” said Mr Halfpenny.
It’s the small wins, eh?
Rachael Dexter is a journalist & audio video producer at The Age.