It’s not a straightforward choice. The convention, before Trump, was to reappoint the sitting chair for a second term to provide continuity and reassurance of policy consistency. Trump broke with precedent in 2017 by denying Janet Yellen, now Biden’s Treasury Secretary, a second term and appointing Powell.
Powell, originally appointed to the board by Barack Obama in 2011, infuriated Trump by refusing to take notice of Trump’s calls for lower interest rates and a re-starting of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Trump threatened to sack Powell on several occasions but lacked the legal authority to do it.
The choice for Biden is between retaining a central bank whose mandate remains largely a focus on inflation and maximising employment or bowing to the progressives who want the Fed to more actively intervene to prosecute a wider social agenda.
He’d also tried to stack the Fed’s board with several bizarre nominations – a pizza chain chief executive who’d raised funds for his campaign, an economist being pursued by the Internal Revenue Service for unpaid taxes and another economist who had questioned whether the Fed should be independent of politics or even exist – but failed to get their nominations through Congress.
Biden’s plans for the Fed positions are likely to be more conventional and less controversial, although that doesn’t mean the Republicans will give his nominees an easy path through the confirmation process.
The biggest decision is what to do with Powell. Powell has Yellen’s support for a second term but the Democrat progressives such as Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have publicly opposed an extension of his term and there is a core of Republicans critical of the Fed’s shift in emphasis from combatting inflation to prioritising employment (particularly employment among minority groups).
The progressives are also fiercely critical of the Fed’s rolling back of some of the Obama-era banking regulations imposed in response to the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis – the loosening of some bank capital requirements, the weakening of the Volcker Rule restricting banks’ proprietary trading, an overhaul of the annual bank stress tests and changes to the “living wills” that provide plans for limiting the damage from a bank’s failure.
Those changes have been overseen by Quarles in his role as vice-chairman, which carries responsibility for bank supervision. They’ve also been consistently opposed by an existing Fed governor, Lael Brainard.
Brainard is supported as a contender for Powell’s position by some on the left because of her stance on bank regulation. Others argue she should replace Quarles as vice-chairman and lead bank supervisor while reappointing Powell.
Powell is thought to have a better prospect of gaining sufficient support from Republicans to offset opposition from some Democrats and therefore to get through the confirmation process. The same couldn’t be said with any level of confidence about any of the other names mooted.
At a broader level, the choice for Biden is between retaining a central bank whose mandate remains largely a focus on inflation and maximising employment or bowing to the progressives who want the Fed to more actively intervene to prosecute a wider social agenda.
Apart from tougher bank regulation, they want the Fed to act to help reduce carbon emissions (by imposing higher capital charges on bank loans to fossil fuel companies and bigger emitters) and to do more to address social inequality. They want Biden to “reimagine” the Fed.
For businesses and financial markets, of course, what counts most is monetary policy and the emergence of a new Fed tasked with achieving a range of other goals would be disconcerting and destabilising. Powell is seen as the safe choice at a delicate moment for monetary policy, the economy and markets.
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